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(Brian Burke, a former pilot who has a less dangerous hobby for the statistical analysis of the NFL, NFL met in Advanced Statistics, blog, football, mathematics and human behavior.)

New England coach Bill Belichick to take a lot of heat for his decision, 4 try downward shift in his own 28 and the end of 6-point lead against the Colts. Indianapolis came back dramatically to win, 35-34. Was it a good decision?

To win with 2:08 left and the Colts, not just a time-out 4th-and-2 conversion on the game for all practical purposes. Conversion is a 4th-and-2 successfully would be 60 percent of the time. Historically, the situation must 2:00 left and a TD, will either win or tie, teams 53 percent of the TD for a position in this field. The probability of winning by a total of 4 down conversion of the company would be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP is the probability of win)

Punt, typically from 28 networks from 38 yards in 34 teams, the Colts have historically TD 30 percent if in this situation. So the Pats to punt about 0.70 WP.

Statistically speaking, would be the better decision to go, and a good crowd. However, these figures are the baselines for the league as a whole. You must wait Colts were better than 30 percent of its Chance of Scoring 34, and thus the greater potential earnings Pats-28. After adjusting for the probability of either the stem grows to stress, it goes to the front. You can use the numbers as you want to play, but it's pretty hard to come to a realistic combination of numbers, which makes a better alternative punting. The best way to make it to wash.